Evaluating
Motivating Uncertainty Effect
Our anticipation of finding out whether we will receive a reward or not can be more stimulating than a guaranteed reward. This bias taps into our natural curiosity and can lead to more effort and interest in the task.
For Example
Imagine there are two competitions at your workplace for the best dressed. In the first competition, the winner receives a guaranteed $100. In the second competition, the winner has a chance to win a mystery voucher for a shopping experience. According to the motivating uncertainty effect, the second competition is more likely to capture our interest and motivate us to put in more effort. This is because the uncertainty and potential for a more significant reward heighten our anticipation and engagement, driven by the fear of missing out on something better.
Similar Biases
Similar biases: Surprise Effect, Variable Reward Bias, Curiosity Gap. Opposing biases: Ambiguity Aversion, Certainty Effect, Status Quo Bias
We tend to remember tasks and goals that are not completed.
The Motivating Uncertainty Effect describes the phenomenon where customers experience heightened interest, motivation, and engagement when outcomes are uncertain yet potentially positive. Contrary to traditional views where uncertainty is typically seen as negative or stressful, strategic uncertainty—such as surprises, random rewards, or mystery elements—can significantly enhance customer motivation and enjoyment. In Customer Experience (CX), brands leverage this effect by incorporating carefully designed uncertainty into products, promotions, or customer interactions. Mystery gifts, surprise discounts, unexpected upgrades, or gamified elements provoke curiosity, excitement, and active engagement. Properly implemented, uncertainty strengthens emotional connections, improves brand recall, and deepens customer relationships. However, poorly managed uncertainty can create anxiety or disappointment; thus, CX must strategically balance uncertainty with clear reassurance.
The Motivating Uncertainty Effect in Task Performance
In an experiment, participants were divided into two groups. The first group was informed that they would receive a definite reward upon completing a task, while the second group was told that their reward would be determined randomly, ranging from nothing to an amount larger than the certain-reward group's reward. The results indicated that participants in the uncertain reward group were more motivated and exerted more effort into completing the task, despite the expected value of the reward being the same for both groups. This phenomenon, known as the Motivating-Uncertainty Effect, demonstrates that uncertainty can enhance motivation by adding an element of excitement and anticipation.
Mystery Rewards in Loyalty Programs
Customers in loyalty programs receiving uncertain "mystery" rewards (versus fixed, predictable rewards) demonstrated increased motivation, participation frequency, and overall satisfaction. Meaning for CX: Introducing uncertainty in rewards systems strategically boosts customer engagement and satisfaction. Brands can strengthen loyalty by incorporating well-managed mystery rewards.
Uncertain Promotional Outcomes
Participants were more engaged and displayed greater willingness to participate in promotions involving uncertain outcomes (e.g., chances to win unknown prizes) compared to guaranteed, clearly defined rewards. Meaning for CX: Strategically designed uncertainty in promotional offers significantly boosts customer curiosity and active participation. CX teams should occasionally integrate uncertainty to sustain excitement and involvement.
Spark Curiosity Early
Stimulate Engagement through Intrigue
When customers first realize they have a need, uncertainty can provoke deeper exploration. A brand that offers a “mystery gift” for first-time customers creates immediate intrigue, motivating hesitant customers to actively engage and discover more.
Generate Buzz with Surprises
Turn Uncertainty into Excitement
Using unexpected elements in advertising or early interactions builds memorable experiences and brand buzz. For example, viral marketing campaigns involving uncertain outcomes ("unlock surprise content") can significantly enhance brand recall and initial customer interest.
Create Intriguing Product Offers
Make Uncertainty Irresistible
Brands can leverage uncertainty to enhance product desirability during consideration. Limited mystery editions or uncertain bundle offers (e.g., "one surprise gift included!") compel customers to investigate further, increasing positive emotional attachment and excitement.
Reward Active Curiosity
Turn Exploration into Adventure
Uncertainty during product exploration can transform ordinary experiences into exciting discoveries. Interactive websites or apps using hidden features, gamification, or surprise outcomes encourage sustained exploration, deepening customer engagement and satisfaction.
Enhance Motivation with Uncertain Rewards
Incentivize Customer Engagement
When researching options, uncertain yet attractive rewards (chance to win a surprise discount or bonus) motivate customers to stay engaged. Brands like e-commerce sites offering randomized discount wheels incentivize deeper exploration and commitment.
Energize Decisions through Mystery
Heighten Decision-making Interest
Introducing uncertainty at the selection stage through surprise bonuses ("select now for a mystery gift!") significantly motivates hesitant customers, reducing decision inertia by enhancing excitement and curiosity about the outcome.
Amplify Satisfaction with Surprise Outcomes
Make Final Moments Memorable
Brands can boost immediate customer satisfaction at purchase by unexpectedly rewarding customers with surprise discounts or small surprise gifts, dramatically amplifying emotional engagement and positive memories of the transaction.
Sustain Excitement through Ongoing Uncertainty
Keep Customers Curious
Brands can continually reignite customer interest and loyalty post-purchase with uncertain yet positive follow-up rewards (unexpected loyalty perks or surprise offers). For instance, brands offering occasional surprise discounts or personalized mystery rewards significantly sustain long-term engagement.
Customer Experience Challenges
Typical challenges in CX where the bias can be used
- Integrity: Brands must implement uncertainty ethically, ensuring customers consistently perceive surprise as delightful rather than deceptive. Transparency about the fairness and legitimacy of uncertain rewards protects brand integrity and trust.
- Expectations: Managing customer expectations regarding uncertainty ensures customers remain excited without becoming anxious or disappointed. Brands must clearly communicate the positive intent and boundaries around uncertainty.
- Resolution: Quickly resolving customer concerns about uncertainty (explaining mystery rewards transparently, resolving disappointments quickly) is critical. Thoughtful resolution maintains excitement while ensuring lasting customer trust.
- Effort: Design uncertainty to intrigue without frustrating. Minimize cognitive effort by clearly indicating potential positive outcomes, ensuring uncertainty enhances rather than complicates customer interactions.
- Emotions: Effectively managing emotions around uncertainty maximizes excitement while preventing anxiety. Carefully designed positive uncertainty fosters deep emotional engagement and lasting brand affinity.
Customer Experience Pillars
Renascence CX pillars where it can be applied most efficiently
- Control: Customers may feel uneasy or anxious if uncertainty is poorly implemented, perceiving it as a loss of control rather than excitement. CX must carefully design uncertainty to be positive and intriguing, clearly communicating boundaries and providing a sense of empowerment rather than anxiety.
- Confidence: Excessive or unclear uncertainty can diminish customers' confidence in their ability to predict outcomes. Brands should balance excitement and clarity, reassuring customers with transparency about the potential outcomes while maintaining intrigue.
- Risk: Customers may interpret uncertainty as a potential risk, discouraging participation. CX teams must frame uncertainty as consistently positive—emphasizing enjoyable outcomes and clearly minimizing perceived downsides.
- Selection: Uncertainty may overwhelm customers when making decisions, leading to hesitation or paralysis. Brands must simplify uncertain options, making them easily accessible, exciting, and appealing without causing decision fatigue or confusion.
- Information: Poorly communicated uncertainty can result in customer frustration. CX must clearly present uncertain offers, explicitly state their positive nature, and ensure customers understand the value, rules, and fairness involved, thereby transforming uncertainty into an exciting rather than confusing experience.
Customer Experience Interfaces
Interfaces & touchpoints where it can be applied most efficiently
- Digital: Incorporate surprise rewards or hidden bonuses within apps or online experiences to increase motivation, engagement, and repeat interactions.
- Voice: Customer support can occasionally offer spontaneous, unexpected goodwill gestures (surprise discounts or upgrades) enhancing emotional connections and customer delight.
- Promo: Design promotions using mystery prizes, surprise discounts, or gamified outcomes to motivate customers through curiosity and excitement, significantly boosting participation and emotional involvement.
- Product: Offer limited-edition or mystery-product variations (surprise editions, blind-box collectibles) that encourage repeated customer engagement and heightened anticipation.
- Shelf: Use occasional "mystery deals" or unpredictable offers at retail points to intrigue and motivate customers, enhancing shopping enjoyment and brand recall.
Renascence Tip
Strategically employing Motivating Uncertainty can significantly deepen customer engagement, enhance emotional excitement, and build stronger brand relationships. Brands should carefully incorporate surprise and uncertainty in ways that delight rather than frustrate—balancing uncertainty with transparency, ensuring customers always feel intrigued yet safe. Poorly managed uncertainty can create dissatisfaction or anxiety; thus, brands must clearly communicate positive intentions, set realistic boundaries, and ensure customers consistently experience pleasant surprises and authentic excitement.
